The Running Commentary

ANC may lose two thirds majority!!!


Many people have asked me, over the past two weeks, what I felt the political landscape would look like post the elections in 8 months time. So I decided I would put down my views and see if anyone agrees or disagrees with them!

The ANC will win the election (sheer volume of votes will dictate this), the opposition parties will attract more votes than they have in the past elections (depending on voter turnout).

I believe that the ANC is rapidly losing hold on the mid to upper echelon of their voter base and, if a viable opposition party does emerge between now and next year then, this base of people will vote for them. This opposition may take the form of a new party, but I cannot see this being a successful venture, if they try to launch and get up and running in 8 months.

I am not sure if, this upper echelon, would vote for the traditional opposition parties (still very much a racial divide in terms of the political landscape), but many of them might. If these folk choose not to vote, then it may have the same effect as voting for a new party. If either of these happens then I believe there is a very real chance that the ANC will loose the two-thirds majority that they have had in the house to-date.

This is critical, as this will enable the opposition, should they choose to drop their racial ramblings, to unite against issues in a more effective manner.

The ANC will loose the Western Cape and this will be governed through a collation government, they will also loose “major” ground in Gauteng. While they will hold onto KZN again, it will not be by the margins that they have had in the past. As for the remaining provinces, the ANC will sweep these as they have always done.

I am hopeful that between now and the elections, we will see a strong push by the opposition politicians to attract this block of voters that I believe are out there. Should they be successful, we will have, for the first time in the history of this country, effective opposition and this always creates a more robust democracy.

Do I think this is possible, absolutely, and hears why, see table below for figures from 2004 election:

27,879,770 – approximate voting base
15,612,671 – 2004 voters who took part
10,880,915  – ANC Votes 69.69%
4,731,756 – opposition votes 30.31%
613,355  – votes required 5% of base that did not take part

The opposition parties, between them only need and additional 613 000 votes to ensure that the can stop the two-thirds majority. In fact it is less than this, but I think they should be targeting this number. They need to embrace the USA style (I can hear you all laughing given that I hate the expenses that they incur) of contacting their electorate and “bringing” the vote along.

If the opposition parties succeed in doing this, and they must be able to given the mood on the ground, then the political landscape of this country will change. As I have said in the past the current NEC of the ANC, may well go down in history as the one changing the political landscape of this country forever.

My urging is get for you to get to the voting booths and ensure you influence the outcome of the election in 2009!

2009 electionsANCDAIDJacob ZumaNECopposition politicsThabo Mbeki

Mike • October 1, 2008

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