A splinter in the ANC’s eye!
Gwede Mantashe is quoted as calling the rumour split a splinter. I am not sure if this is to try to down play the fact that some of the top leadership of the ANC appear to be moving to form a new political party. Clearly the talk of the imminent formation of a new party to oppose the ANC is gathering huge momentum.
I previously said that I did not think that a new party could be formed and effective by the time that elections come around. Significantly the ANC is in a huge quandary, knowing that calling for early elections does not fit with the Zuma issue, while at the same time delaying the elections may give a new party more time to garner support.
If the ANC delay the election post April next year, they are faced with the real spectre of losing more than just the two-thirds majority. If the “splinter” is successful they could very well lose significant ground.
I am still of the opinion that a new party will emerge from the ANC rift that has happened and this party will draw votes away from the ANC. If the party is unable to be up and running by the time the elections come around, I am almost certain that potential voters for this group would abstain from voting rather than voting for the ANC or the current opposition party. Either way we will be left with a result that could see support for the ANC drop, with the current opposition enjoying a slight increase. If this increase in support for the opposition or a decrease in the support of the ANC is more than 630 000 votes, then, based on the 2004 elections, the ANC will lose the two-thirds majority.
The political landscape in this country has never seen such turmoil and certainly makes for interesting reading, we could well be witnessing a significant change in South African history.